Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Ethereum Classic (ETC) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ETC moves ~7 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch ETC for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → +20%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
796
Normalized
730
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+44% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does Ethereum Classic (ETC) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 7 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 2 / B: 773
Series A
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
ETC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4363
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0733
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-etc_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y