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Ethereum Classic (ETC) vs HY Bond Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
521
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-34% → -18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
521 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
786
Normalized
730
786
Prepared
730
786
Aligned
521
521
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
521
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
520 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-27%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
153 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
474
A: 209 / B: 265
Series A
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
ETC
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1317
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-etc_fred-bamlh0a0hym2_daily_5y