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ELV vs FRetail SalesElevance Health, Inc. (ELV) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
47
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ELV moves ~8 months before Retail Sales
Watch ELV for an early read on Retail Sales.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → +4%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
47 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
980
412
Normalized
980
412
Prepared
48
412
Aligned
47
47
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
47
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
-33%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) today line up with Retail Sales 8 months from now?"
38 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
29 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
366
A: 1 / B: 365
Series A
Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV)
ELV
Stock · 980 raw → 48 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0379
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-elv_monthly_5y