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Correlation
of % moves
-13%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
46
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
ELV moves ~1 month before US CPI
Watch ELV for an early read on US CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-13%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-41% → +18%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
46 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
980
951
Normalized
980
951
Prepared
48
951
Aligned
46
46
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
1.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
46
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
-40%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) today line up with US CPI 1 month from now?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-13%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
907
A: 2 / B: 905
Series A
Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV)
ELV
Stock · 980 raw → 48 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0037
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0026
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-elv_monthly_5y