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Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) vs USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-12%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,239
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-12%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-18% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,239 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
11,325
Normalized
1,255
11,325
Prepared
1,255
11,325
Aligned
1,239
1,239
Invalid removed
R²(i)
1.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,239
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-12%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,238 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-12%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-12%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
159 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,102
A: 16 / B: 10086
Series A
EL
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 11,325 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0113
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_stock-el_daily_5y