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Correlation
of values
-52%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
244
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Unemployment Rate moves ~12 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Unemployment Rate for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-52%
Based on values
95% CI
-61% → -42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
5,121
Normalized
940
5,121
Prepared
940
246
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
27.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
-60%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with US Dollar Index 12 months from now?"
225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+26%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
161 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
698
A: 696 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXEMEGS
FRED · 5,121 raw → 246 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.5093
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
132.1730
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dtwexemegs_fred-unrate_monthly_5y