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Correlation
of values
-56%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
244
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
US Dollar Index moves ~18 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch US Dollar Index for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-56%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
388
5,121
Normalized
388
5,121
Prepared
388
246
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
31.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-65%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does U-6 Unemployment Rate today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months ago?"
219 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+28%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
145 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 144 / B: 2
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXEMEGS
FRED · 5,121 raw → 246 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.3151
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
136.4716
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dtwexemegs_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y