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Correlation
of values
+81%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,063
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~65% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+81%
Based on values
95% CI
+79% → +83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,063 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,223
5,107
Normalized
1,223
5,107
Prepared
1,223
1,063
Aligned
1,063
1,063
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
65.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,063
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+81%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,063 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-87%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
160
A: 160 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,223 raw → 1,223 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 1,063 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
88.1389
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-walcl_weekly_5y