Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
242
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Unemployment Rate moves ~8 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Unemployment Rate for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-66% → -49%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
938
5,092
Normalized
938
5,092
Prepared
938
244
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
-65%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with US Dollar Index 8 months from now?"
234 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
166 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
698
A: 696 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,092 raw → 244 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.3369
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
125.3960
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 days ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-unrate_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.