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Correlation
of values
-62%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
245
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~39% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Dollar Index moves ~18 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch US Dollar Index for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-62%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
245 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
389
5,139
Normalized
389
5,139
Prepared
389
247
Aligned
245
245
Invalid removed
39%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
245
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-67%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does U-6 Unemployment Rate today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months ago?"
219 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
148 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 144 / B: 2
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 389 raw → 389 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,139 raw → 247 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.1786
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
129.3398
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y