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Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
5,141
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -48%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,141 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,925
5,184
Normalized
5,925
5,184
Prepared
5,925
5,184
Aligned
5,141
5,141
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
5,141
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,141 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
827
A: 784 / B: 43
Series A
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,184 raw → 5,184 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-18.5629
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
147.9462
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y