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Correlation
of values
-51%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
5,064
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on values
95% CI
-53% → -49%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,064 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,851
5,107
Normalized
5,851
5,107
Prepared
5,851
5,107
Aligned
5,064
5,064
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,064
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,064 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
830
A: 787 / B: 43
Series A
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,851 raw → 5,851 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 5,107 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-18.6100
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
147.8435
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y