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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
243
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~72% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
+81% → +88%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
5,107
Normalized
807
5,107
Prepared
807
245
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
R²(i)
72.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
243 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
102 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-26%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
566
A: 564 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0029
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
66.6831
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-pce_monthly_5y