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Correlation
of values
+60%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
247
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Dollar Index moves ~16 months before Housing Starts
Watch US Dollar Index for an early read on Housing Starts.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on values
95% CI
+51% → +68%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
247 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
5,179
Normalized
811
5,179
Prepared
811
248
Aligned
247
247
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
247
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
+79%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with US Dollar Index 16 months ago?"
231 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
133 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
565
A: 564 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,179 raw → 248 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0208
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
82.1142
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-houst_monthly_5y