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Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
82
These move together
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~78% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
+83% → +92%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
82 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
318
5,184
Normalized
318
5,184
Prepared
318
249
Aligned
82
82
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
78%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
82
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
82 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
403
A: 236 / B: 167
Series A
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 318 raw → 318 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,184 raw → 249 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0044
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.6167
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-gdpc1_monthly_5y