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Correlation
of values
+35%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
244
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Dollar Index moves ~18 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch US Dollar Index for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on values
95% CI
+23% → +45%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
5,107
Normalized
862
5,107
Prepared
862
245
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+60%
+26% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months ago?"
226 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
159 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
619
A: 618 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.1374
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
102.4944
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dtwexbgs_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y