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Correlation
of values
-64%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
246
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~41% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-64%
Based on values
95% CI
-71% → -56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
246 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
942
5,179
Normalized
942
5,179
Prepared
942
248
Aligned
246
246
Invalid removed
R²(i)
41%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
246
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
246 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
172 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
698
A: 696 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 942 raw → 942 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXAFEGS
FRED · 5,179 raw → 248 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.2480
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
120.6596
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dtwexafegs_fred-unrate_monthly_5y