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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
5,078
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
-73% → -71%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,078 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,501
5,121
Normalized
12,501
5,121
Prepared
12,501
5,121
Aligned
5,078
5,078
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
52.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,078
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,078 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
7,466
A: 7423 / B: 43
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 12,501 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXAFEGS
FRED · 5,121 raw → 5,121 prepared
Sign agreement
84.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-8.2338
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
110.0950
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dtwexafegs_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y