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Correlation
of values
+64%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
245
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~41% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
US Dollar Index moves ~15 months before Building Permits
Watch US Dollar Index for an early read on Building Permits.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+64%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
245 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
5,139
Normalized
797
5,139
Prepared
797
247
Aligned
245
245
Invalid removed
41%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
245
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
+77%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with US Dollar Index 15 months ago?"
230 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
+77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
554
A: 552 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXAFEGS
FRED · 5,139 raw → 247 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0184
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
79.3936
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dtwexafegs_fred-permit_monthly_5y