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Correlation
of values
-34%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on values
95% CI
-44% → -23%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
5,862
Normalized
808
5,862
Prepared
808
282
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
280 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
78 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 528 / B: 2
Series A
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9176
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dspic96_fred-t5yifr_monthly_5y