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Correlation
of values
+97%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
411
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~94% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
+97% → +98%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
411 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
807
Normalized
411
807
Prepared
411
807
Aligned
411
411
Invalid removed
R²(i)
94.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
411
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
411 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+81%
134 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
98 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
396
A: 0 / B: 396
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Series B
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0193
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5022.9421
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dspic96_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y