Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Polkadot (DOT) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+37%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
22
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~4 months before DOT
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on DOT.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-9% → +70%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
799
Normalized
730
799
Prepared
25
799
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
20
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Polkadot (DOT) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 4 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-1%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
780
A: 3 / B: 777
Series A
Polkadot (DOT)
DOT
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Sign agreement
95.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0915
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0308
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-dot_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y