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Polkadot (DOT) vs Real Personal Consumption
Correlation
of % moves
+34%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real Personal Consumption moves ~10 months before DOT
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on DOT.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-10% → +67%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
231
Normalized
730
231
Prepared
25
231
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Polkadot (DOT) today line up with Real Personal Consumption 10 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+71%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-18%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
210
A: 2 / B: 208
Series A
Polkadot (DOT)
DOT
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0051
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-dot_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y