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Polkadot (DOT) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+62%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~38% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+62%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+27% → +82%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,048
Normalized
730
1,048
Prepared
25
1,048
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
37.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+62%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
23 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-23%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+50%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,025
A: 1 / B: 1024
Series A
Polkadot (DOT)
DOT
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0020
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-dot_fred-payems_monthly_5y