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Polkadot (DOT) vs IG Bond Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-22%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
520
These move opposite each other about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-30% → -14%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
520 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
785
Normalized
730
785
Prepared
730
785
Aligned
520
520
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
520
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-22%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
519 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-22%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
172 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
475
A: 210 / B: 265
Series A
Polkadot (DOT)
DOT
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0669
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-dot_fred-bamlc0a0cm_daily_5y