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Dogecoin (DOGE) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
22
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
DOGE moves ~4 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch DOGE for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
69%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-15% → +66%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
799
Normalized
730
799
Prepared
25
799
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
20
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Dogecoin (DOGE) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 4 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+13%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
780
A: 3 / B: 777
Series A
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Sign agreement
95.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0550
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0366
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-doge_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y