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Dogecoin (DOGE) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+41%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
25
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~13 months before DOGE
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on DOGE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+0% → +70%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
25 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
533
Normalized
730
533
Prepared
25
533
Aligned
25
25
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
25
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -14 to 14 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
-56%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Dogecoin (DOGE) today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 13 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-57%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
508
A: 0 / B: 508
Series A
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1646
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0077
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-doge_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y