Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of % moves
+30%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-04
44
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real Personal Consumption moves ~5 months before DM
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on DM.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-0% → +55%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
879
235
Normalized
879
235
Prepared
44
235
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
43
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does DM today line up with Real Personal Consumption 5 months ago?"
38 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-19%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+8%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
191
A: 0 / B: 191
Series A
DM
Stock · 879 raw → 44 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 235 raw → 235 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0048
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 months ago · ID: fred-pcec96_stock-dm_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.