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Correlation
of % moves
+28%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-04
47
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real Personal Consumption moves ~5 months before DM
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on DM.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-1% → +53%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
47 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
955
232
Normalized
955
232
Prepared
47
232
Aligned
47
47
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
47
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+43%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does DM today line up with Real Personal Consumption 5 months ago?"
41 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-28%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
185
A: 0 / B: 185
Series A
DM
Stock · 955 raw → 47 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 232 raw → 232 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0046
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-pcec96_stock-dm_monthly_5y