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Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-04
44
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
DM moves ~18 months before Real Disposable Income
Watch DM for an early read on Real Disposable Income.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-4% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
882
811
Normalized
882
811
Prepared
44
811
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
43
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Disposable Income shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does DM today line up with Real Disposable Income 18 months from now?"
25 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
767
A: 0 / B: 767
Series A
DM
Stock · 882 raw → 44 prepared
Series B
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0072
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0023
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 months ago · ID: fred-dspic96_stock-dm_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.