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Correlation
of values
-42%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-08
2,495
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on values
95% CI
-45% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,495 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,110
2,513
Normalized
11,110
2,513
Prepared
11,110
2,513
Aligned
2,495
2,495
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,495
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-42%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,495 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,633
A: 8615 / B: 18
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 11,110 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,513 raw → 2,513 prepared
Sign agreement
70.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3519.7877
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
33145.6130
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-djia_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y