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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-07
2,494
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,494 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,129
2,512
Normalized
11,129
2,512
Prepared
11,129
2,512
Aligned
2,494
2,494
Invalid removed
16%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,494
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,494 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,653
A: 8635 / B: 18
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,129 raw → 11,129 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
70.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3400.6397
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
33344.5248
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-djia_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y