Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
119
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~89% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
+92% → +96%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
2,513
Normalized
412
2,513
Prepared
412
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
R²(i)
88.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+79%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
50 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
295
A: 293 / B: 2
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,513 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0756
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-13050.8393
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-djia_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y