Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+64%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
522
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~41% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+64%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
522 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,884
2,512
Normalized
2,884
2,512
Prepared
2,884
523
Aligned
522
522
Invalid removed
41%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
522
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
522 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-58%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,363
A: 2362 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 2,884 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,512 raw → 523 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3601.6819
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14348.2455
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-djia_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y