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Correlation
of values
+62%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
120
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~38% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before Dow Jones Industrial Average
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+62%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
120 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
2,512
Normalized
864
2,512
Prepared
864
121
Aligned
120
120
Invalid removed
38%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
120
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+72%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Dow Jones Industrial Average shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with Dow Jones Industrial Average 18 months from now?"
102 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+43%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+94%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
75 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
745
A: 744 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2754.6451
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
25480.3708
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-djia_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y