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Correlation
of values
+30%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
5,924
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +32%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,924 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,155
5,925
Normalized
16,155
5,925
Prepared
16,155
5,925
Aligned
5,924
5,924
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
5,924
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+30%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,924 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,232
A: 10231 / B: 1
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,155 raw → 16,155 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
68
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0736
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0627
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs5_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y