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Correlation
of values
-63%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
772
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-63%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
772 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
16,092
Normalized
808
16,092
Prepared
808
774
Aligned
772
772
Invalid removed
R²(i)
39.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
772
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
772 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+44%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
38
A: 36 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,092 raw → 774 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7119
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs5_fred-pce_monthly_5y