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Correlation
of values
+53%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
2,891
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+53%
Based on values
95% CI
+51% → +56%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,891 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,092
2,891
Normalized
16,092
2,891
Prepared
3,362
2,891
Aligned
2,891
2,891
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
28.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,891
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,891 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
471
A: 471 / B: 0
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,092 raw → 3,362 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,891 raw → 2,891 prepared
Sign agreement
29.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1604
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8903
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs5_fred-nfci_weekly_5y