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Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
2,904
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
+51% → +56%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,904 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,155
2,904
Normalized
16,155
2,904
Prepared
3,375
2,904
Aligned
2,904
2,904
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
29%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,904
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,904 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
471
A: 471 / B: 0
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,155 raw → 3,375 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,904 raw → 2,904 prepared
Sign agreement
29.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
22
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1616
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8961
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs5_fred-nfci_weekly_5y