Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
1,232
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~78% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,232 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,111
1,806
Normalized
16,111
1,806
Prepared
16,111
1,806
Aligned
1,232
1,232
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
78%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,232
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,232 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+49%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
141 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
15,453
A: 14879 / B: 574
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,111 raw → 16,111 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,806 raw → 1,806 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.6002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.9889
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs5_fred-iorb_daily_5y