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Correlation
of values
-64%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,862
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-64%
Based on values
95% CI
-66% → -61%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,862 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,092
1,862
Normalized
16,092
1,862
Prepared
3,362
1,862
Aligned
1,862
1,862
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
40.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,862
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,862 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,500
A: 1500 / B: 0
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,092 raw → 3,362 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,862 raw → 1,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3039
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.3821
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs5_fred-gasregw_weekly_5y