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Correlation
of values
+35%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
591
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
30Y Treasury Yield moves ~18 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch 30Y Treasury Yield for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
591 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
12,322
Normalized
940
12,322
Prepared
940
593
Aligned
591
591
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
591
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Treasury Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with 30Y Treasury Yield 18 months ago?"
566 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
351
A: 349 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,322 raw → 593 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5980
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.5656
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-unrate_monthly_5y