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Correlation
of values
+35%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
593
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
30Y Treasury Yield moves ~18 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch 30Y Treasury Yield for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
593 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
942
12,381
Normalized
942
12,381
Prepared
942
595
Aligned
593
593
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
593
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Treasury Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with 30Y Treasury Yield 18 months ago?"
566 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-44%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
351
A: 349 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 942 raw → 942 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,381 raw → 595 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5980
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.5652
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-unrate_monthly_5y