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Correlation
of values
-82%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
591
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~67% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-82%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
591 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
12,341
Normalized
1,000
12,341
Prepared
1,000
594
Aligned
591
591
Invalid removed
67%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
591
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
591 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
26 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
412
A: 409 / B: 3
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,341 raw → 594 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.5613
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y