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Correlation
of values
-77%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
591
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~60% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
30Y Treasury Yield moves ~18 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch 30Y Treasury Yield for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-77%
Based on values
95% CI
-80% → -74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
591 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,322
1,360
Normalized
12,322
1,360
Prepared
593
1,360
Aligned
591
591
Invalid removed
R²(i)
59.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
591
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-82%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 30Y Treasury Yield today line up with PPI: All Commodities 18 months from now?"
573 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-35%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
771
A: 2 / B: 769
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,322 raw → 593 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-13.6413
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
236.4615
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y