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Correlation
of values
-77%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
592
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~59% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
30Y Treasury Yield moves ~18 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch 30Y Treasury Yield for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-77%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
592 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,341
1,361
Normalized
12,341
1,361
Prepared
594
1,361
Aligned
592
592
Invalid removed
59%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
592
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-82%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 30Y Treasury Yield today line up with PPI: All Commodities 18 months from now?"
574 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-18%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
771
A: 2 / B: 769
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,341 raw → 594 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,361 raw → 1,361 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-13.6678
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
236.8326
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y