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Correlation
of values
-87%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
593
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~76% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-87%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
593 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,050
12,341
Normalized
1,050
12,341
Prepared
1,050
594
Aligned
593
593
Invalid removed
76%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
593
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-87%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
593 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-87%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+86%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
458
A: 457 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,341 raw → 594 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
21.1896
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-payems_monthly_5y