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Correlation
of values
+83%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
1,213
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~68% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+83%
Based on values
95% CI
+81% → +84%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,213 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,322
1,777
Normalized
12,322
1,777
Prepared
12,322
1,777
Aligned
1,213
1,213
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
68.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,213
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+83%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,213 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+43%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
143 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,673
A: 11109 / B: 564
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,322 raw → 12,322 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 1,777 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.5874
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2.6137
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-iorb_daily_5y