SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-73%
of values
In sync
53%
of periods
History
195
weeks · through 2025-40
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
30Y Treasury Yield moves ~12 weeks before Federal Debt
Watch 30Y Treasury Yield for an early read on Federal Debt.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
195 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
240
12,297
Normalized
240
12,297
Prepared
240
2,568
Aligned
195
195
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
52.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
195
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Federal Debt today line up with 30Y Treasury Yield 12 weeks ago?"
183 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
92 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+64%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
92 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,418
A: 45 / B: 2373
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,297 raw → 2,568 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.4675
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-gfdebtn_5y