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Correlation
of values
-56%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
12,500
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~31% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-56%
Based on values
95% CI
-57% → -54%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12,500 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,500
12,501
Normalized
12,500
12,501
Prepared
12,500
12,501
Aligned
12,500
12,500
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
31.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
12,500
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-56%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12,500 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1
A: 0 / B: 1
Series A
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,500 raw → 12,500 prepared
Series B
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 12,501 prepared
Sign agreement
83.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
35
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1389
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5361
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs2_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y