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Correlation
of values
+44%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
600
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Personal Savings Rate moves ~18 months before 2Y Treasury Yield
Watch Personal Savings Rate for an early read on 2Y Treasury Yield.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
600 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,519
809
Normalized
12,519
809
Prepared
602
809
Aligned
600
600
Invalid removed
19%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
600
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+49%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Personal Savings Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 2Y Treasury Yield today line up with Personal Savings Rate 18 months ago?"
582 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+68%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 2 / B: 209
Series A
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,519 raw → 602 prepared
Series B
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3702
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.3262
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs2_fred-psavert_monthly_5y