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Correlation
of values
-69%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
600
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~47% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-69%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
600 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
12,519
Normalized
809
12,519
Prepared
809
602
Aligned
600
600
Invalid removed
47%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
600
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-69%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
600 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+2%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 209 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,519 raw → 602 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.7069
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs2_fred-pce_monthly_5y