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Correlation
of values
-61%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
602
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~37% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on values
95% CI
-66% → -56%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
602 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,563
811
Normalized
12,563
811
Prepared
604
811
Aligned
602
602
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
37%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
602
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
602 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 2 / B: 209
Series A
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,563 raw → 604 prepared
Series B
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1052.1097
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
12876.6297
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs2_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y