SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+12%) is running 1.1σ away from the long-run average of -61%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-10%) and fall (-18%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
771 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with M2 Money Supply at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-61%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-65% → -56%
Likely range
R²
37.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
771
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
771 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,066
807
Normalized
16,066
807
Prepared
3,357
807
Aligned
771
771
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
119 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,622
A: 2586 / B: 36
Series A
DGS10
FRED · 16,066 raw → 3,357 prepared
Series B
M2SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1273.7893
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13410.2490
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs10|fred:m2sl|5Y
M2SL
M2 Money Supply
Strongest positive