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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
772
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-65% → -56%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
772 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
16,092
Normalized
1,000
16,092
Prepared
1,000
774
Aligned
772
772
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
36.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
772
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
772 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
230
A: 228 / B: 2
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,092 raw → 774 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.0018
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs1_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y