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Correlation
of values
-62%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
12,500
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~38% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-62%
Based on values
95% CI
-63% → -60%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12,500 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,501
16,092
Normalized
12,501
16,092
Prepared
12,501
16,092
Aligned
12,500
12,500
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
37.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
12,500
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-62%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12,500 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,593
A: 1 / B: 3592
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 12,501 prepared
Series B
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,092 raw → 16,092 prepared
Sign agreement
83.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
41
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.4824
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.8082
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dgs1_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y